US Drought · Drought Monitor
Weekly drought coverage (D0–D4) · Winter Wheat Belt and national CONUS
Methodology
US Drought Monitor (USDM) : Published every Thursday by the National Drought Mitigation Center (Univ. Nebraska). D0→D4 values are cumulative: D2 = area in D2 or worse (severe, extreme, exceptional).
Drought Stress Index (DSI) : Composite score 0–100 calculated as the weighted average of D2+ per state, weighted by share of national winter wheat production (KS 35%, TX 15%, OK 13%, NE 10%, CO 8%, MT 8%, SD 6%).
WASDE Link : The % of KS+OK+TX in D2-D4 at mid-March is a leading indicator of WASDE May wheat yield estimates. A high DSI in March/April foreshadows a downward revision of production.
Source: USDA / University of Nebraska-Lincoln : droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
The US Drought Monitor (USDM) is published every Thursday by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, in partnership with NOAA and USDA. It classifies drought intensity into five categories: D0 (Abnormally Dry), D1 (Moderate), D2 (Severe), D3 (Extreme) and D4 (Exceptional). Categories are cumulative: a D2 zone also includes D3 and D4 areas.
For winter wheat markets, the states of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas alone account for roughly 60 % of US winter wheat production. A high percentage of D2+ drought coverage in these states from February to April is a strong leading indicator for USDA WASDE yield revisions in the May and June reports. The Drought Stress Index (DSI) computed on this page weights D2+ coverage by each state's share of national winter wheat output, providing a single composite measure to track over time.
Historical series are available from January 2000 to the present.