US Drought · Drought Monitor
Weekly drought coverage (D0–D4) · Winter Wheat Belt and national CONUS
Methodology
US Drought Monitor (USDM) : Published every Thursday by the National Drought Mitigation Center (Univ. Nebraska). D0→D4 values are cumulative: D2 = area in D2 or worse (severe, extreme, exceptional).
Drought Stress Index (DSI) : Composite score 0–100 calculated as the weighted average of D2+ per state, weighted by share of national winter wheat production (KS 35%, TX 15%, OK 13%, NE 10%, CO 8%, MT 8%, SD 6%).
WASDE Link : The % of KS+OK+TX in D2-D4 at mid-March is a leading indicator of WASDE May wheat yield estimates. A high DSI in March/April foreshadows a downward revision of production.
Source: USDA / University of Nebraska-Lincoln : droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The US Drought Monitor (USDM) is published every Thursday by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, in partnership with NOAA and USDA. It classifies drought intensity into five categories: D0 (Abnormally Dry), D1 (Moderate), D2 (Severe), D3 (Extreme) and D4 (Exceptional). Categories are cumulative: a D2 zone also includes D3 and D4 areas.
For winter wheat markets, the states of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas alone account for roughly 60 % of US winter wheat production. A high percentage of D2+ drought coverage in these states from February to April is a strong leading indicator for USDA WASDE yield revisions in the May and June reports. The Drought Stress Index (DSI) computed on this page weights D2+ coverage by each state's share of national winter wheat output, providing a single composite measure to track over time.
Data is updated weekly every Thursday after 8 pm ET. Historical series are available from January 2000 to the present.