Grain export monitoring from the Black Sea region: Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan.
Price in USD/t · cash-settled CME
| Contract | Date | Open | High | Low | Close | Volume | OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BDVU26September 2026 | 25/06/2026 | 235.75 | 236.00 | 235.50 | 235.50 | 250 | 500 |
| BDVN26July 2026 | 25/06/2026 | 237.75 | 237.75 | 237.75 | 237.75 | 0 | — |
| BDVZ26December 2026 | 25/06/2026 | 245.75 | 246.00 | 245.75 | 245.75 | 0 | — |
| BDVH27March 2027 | 25/06/2026 | 252.00 | 252.00 | 251.75 | 252.00 | 0 | — |
| BDVK27May 2027 | 25/06/2026 | 257.00 | 257.00 | 256.75 | 257.00 | 0 | — |
| BDVN27July 2027 | 25/06/2026 | 256.75 | 256.75 | 256.50 | 256.75 | 0 | — |
| Country | Production (Mt) | Exports (Mt) | Ending stocks (Mt) | Export/Prod |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | 90.3 +8.7 | 48 +5 | 12 +1.4 | 53% +0 |
| Ukraine | 24.1 +0.7 | 14 -1.8 | 2.1 +1.4 | 58% -0.1 |
| Kazakhstan | 19.3 +0.7 | 11.5 +1.3 | 3 -0.3 | 60% +0 |
| Zone total | 133.7 | 73.5 | 17.1 | 55% |
| Country | Production (Mt) | Exports (Mt) | Ending stocks (Mt) | Export/Prod |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | 14.8 +0.8 | 3.8 +0.8 | 0.9 -0.1 | 26% +0 |
| Ukraine | 30.9 +4.1 | 22 +2 | 2.7 +1.9 | 71% -0 |
| Kazakhstan | 1 -0 | 0.2 -0 | 0.1 +0 | 17% -0 |
| Zone total | 46.7 | 26 | 3.7 | 56% |
| Country | Production (Mt) | Exports (Mt) | Ending stocks (Mt) | Export/Prod |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | 19.4 +3.1 | 4.4 +1 | 0.6 +0.3 | 23% +0 |
| Ukraine | 5.6 -0.2 | 1.6 -0.7 | 1.7 +1.3 | 29% -0.1 |
| Kazakhstan | 3.6 -0.2 | 1.6 -0.5 | 0.3 +0.1 | 45% -0.1 |
| Zone total | 28.6 | 7.6 | 2.5 | 27% |
Season-to-date totals (Ukrainian customs data)
| Crop | Current season | Prev. year | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat | 12.7 Mt | 15 Mt | -15.4 % |
| Corn | 19.5 Mt | 20.8 Mt | -6.2 % |
| Barley | 1.5 Mt | 2.3 Mt | -35.7 % |
| Total | 33.7 Mt | — | — |
Monthly average prices from EU Agridata : ~3 week lag vs spot prices
RUB tax data · week of 2026-06-03 to 2026-06-09
Zero tax since 21 Apr 2026 · Last positive tax: 329 RUB/t (week of 15 Apr 2026)
| Crop | Tax (RUB/t) | Indicative price ($/t) | Impact (%) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat | 0 | 232 $ | 0.0% | Free export |
| Barley | 0 | 223.2 $ | 0.0% | Free export |
| Corn | 0 | 226.1 $ | 0.0% | Free export |
Russia FOB wheat price (EU Agridata) · 2026-06-01
175.8 €/t
Russia vs France competitiveness (wheat)
Russia indicative
232 $
2026-06-03
France FOB (monthly avg EU Agridata)
238.9 $
2026-06-21
Russia − FR gap
-6.9 $Russia competitive
Stats over 52 weeks · 2025-07-02 → 2026-06-03 · USDRUB rate 90
Wheat
24 non-zero weeks
Barley
1 non-zero weeks
Corn
12 non-zero weeks
Ukraine: actual cumulative data (Minagro) vs annual WASDE projection · Russia: WASDE projection only
Ukraine · actual cumulative
Minagro · 2026-06-03Russia · WASDE projections
Actual data not publicly availableWheat
48 Mt
+5 vs prior year
Prior year: 43 Mt
Corn
3.8 Mt
Barley
4.4 Mt
Annual USDA WASDE projection · 2025/2026 season vs prior season. For real weekly data (SovEcon, IKAR, vessel data), paid subscriptions are required.
WASDE projection trend · wheat exports (Mt)
| WASDE | Russia | Δ | Ukraine | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06 | 46 | +1.5 | 12.5 | 0 |
| 2026-05 | 44.5 | 0 | 12.5 | 0 |
| 2026-04 | 44.5 | 12.5 |
Δ = revision vs prior WASDE · 2025/2026
🌾 Australia — direct competitor for Asian wheat
ABARES production by state, weather in growing zones and GrainCorp & CBH receivals. Australia and the Black Sea compete for South-East Asian and Middle-Eastern markets.
Content for subscribers only
Sign up for free to access the full analysis.
Sign inNo account? Create a free account
USDA Balances : USDA FAS PSD Online (apps.fas.usda.gov), data in thousands of metric tonnes converted to Mt. Russia = RS, Ukraine = UP, Kazakhstan = KZ. Monthly update (WASDE report).
Rouen Prices : EU Agridata (agridata.ec.europa.eu/api), French port departure prices, soft wheat (BLT) and feed barley. Weekly update.
FOB Russia / France / US : Extracted from the EU Agridata Cereals Dashboard PDF. In $/t.
Russian export tax : Global Trade Alert + USDA GAIN Reports. RUB to EUR conversion: USDRUB rate approx. 90 (fixed approx.) x daily EUR/USD.
Ukraine Exports : UkrAgroConsult / minagro.gov.ua. Data in Mt cumulated since campaign start.
Competitiveness spread : Rouen price (EUR/t) minus Russia FOB ($/t converted to EUR/t via EUR/USD). Threshold: 15 EUR/t.
The Black Sea region groups the three main wheat and corn exporters competing with France: Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, Ukraine, Europe's largest corn exporter, and Kazakhstan. The Russian wheat export tax, published weekly by the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, is a key indicator of Russian wheat competitiveness on world markets. The Rouen FOB price minus the Russia FOB price measures French wheat's competitive advantage: above +15 €/t, France loses markets to Russia.