Comparison of Euronext and CBOT prices converted to €/t. Identify arbitrage opportunities between European and US markets.
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Calendar spreads measure the price difference between two expiries of the same contract. On Euronext wheat, a negative spread (contango) indicates abundant near-term supply, while a positive spread (backwardation) signals immediate availability tension. Tracking inter-market spreads between EBM and ZW (CBOT) helps assess European wheat competitiveness against US wheat.
The EBM-ZW spread measures French wheat competitiveness against US wheat. A high positive spread indicates Euronext wheat is more expensive than Chicago wheat converted to euros: France loses export market share. A negative or near-zero spread signals recovered competitiveness. The EBM calendar spread (difference between two expiries) reflects futures market structure: backwardation (positive spread) signals immediate availability tension, contango (negative spread) indicates abundant near-term supply.