Euronext Wheat Fund Positioning as of 31/07/2026 and Market Outlook
Funds extend their net long on Euronext wheat to 153,622 lots. The €217/t support holds and the market rebounds. Crude and the Black Sea remain the main drivers.
Funds did not lighten up, they added. The net long moves to 153,622 lots against 144,577 the previous week, a rise of 9,045 lots. Longs reach 382,443 contracts and shorts fall back to 228,821. It is the largest long position since 22 June 2022.
Last Wednesday I flagged the risk of an unwinding. It did not happen: while the price corrected from €244/t towards €217/t, funds kept buying the dip. Exposure is therefore more concentrated today than it was a week ago, in a market that has lost €27/t from its high.
On the commercial side, the net short widens to 160,690 lots. They now hold 64.13% of total shorts and 39.37% of longs. Their hedging tied directly to commercial activity is rising sharply, with 26,180 additional long contracts and 41,941 additional shorts over the week.
On the chart, September wheat traded down to €217/t intraday, exactly the zone I have been drawing on this contract for weeks. It held. The market is rebounding to €222.50/t, up €2/t, and is back above the 61.8% retracement at €221.46/t that it broke yesterday.
The level to watch remains the €217/t zone. As long as it holds, the structure is intact.
The backdrop remains dominated by crude. Rumours of a deal between Washington and Tehran on reopening Hormuz sent the barrel tumbling yesterday; prices stayed undecided today around $75.70/bbl. Meanwhile nothing is moving in the Black Sea: strikes continue, loadings remain disrupted, and Russia's and Ukraine's real capacity to load in August will be the true test.
On the currency side, the euro is edging up 0.22% late in the day, trading around 1.1565 after rebounding off 1.1500
To be continued...