Grain export monitoring from the Black Sea region: Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan.
| Pays | Production (Mt) | Exports (Mt) | Stocks fin (Mt) | Export/Prod |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russie | 90.3 +8.7 | 46 +3 | 13.5 +2.9 | 51% -0 |
| Ukraine | 24.1 +0.7 | 12.5 -3.3 | 3.6 +2.9 | 52% -0.2 |
| Kazakhstan | 19.3 +0.7 | 11.5 +1.3 | 2.8 -0.5 | 60% +0 |
| Total zone | 133.7 | 70 | 19.9 | 52% |
| Pays | Production (Mt) | Exports (Mt) | Stocks fin (Mt) | Export/Prod |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russie | 14.8 +0.8 | 3.3 +0.3 | 1.1 +0.2 | 22% +0 |
| Ukraine | 30.9 +4.1 | 22 +2 | 2.7 +1.9 | 71% -0 |
| Kazakhstan | 1 -0 | 0.2 -0 | 0.1 +0 | 17% -0 |
| Total zone | 46.7 | 25.5 | 3.9 | 55% |
| Pays | Production (Mt) | Exports (Mt) | Stocks fin (Mt) | Export/Prod |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russie | 19.4 +3.1 | 4 +0.6 | 1 +0.6 | 21% -0 |
| Ukraine | 5.6 -0.2 | 2.2 -0.1 | 1.1 +0.7 | 39% +0 |
| Kazakhstan | 3.6 -0.2 | 1.7 -0.4 | 0.3 +0.1 | 47% -0.1 |
| Total zone | 28.6 | 7.9 | 2.3 | 28% |
Season-to-date totals (Ukrainian customs data)
| Crop | Current season | Prev. year | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat | 12.7 Mt | 15 Mt | -15.4 % |
| Corn | 19.5 Mt | 20.8 Mt | -6.2 % |
| Barley | 1.5 Mt | 2.3 Mt | -35.7 % |
| Total | 33.7 Mt | — | — |
Monthly average prices from EU Agridata : ~3 week lag vs spot prices
Données taxe RUB · semaine du 2026-06-03 au 2026-06-09
Taxe nulle depuis le 21 Apr 2026 · Dernière taxe positive : 329 RUB/t (semaine du 15 Apr 2026)
| Culture | Taxe (RUB/t) | Prix indicatif ($/t) | Impact (%) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blé | 0 | 232 $ | 0.0% | Export libre |
| Orge | 0 | 223.2 $ | 0.0% | Export libre |
| Maïs | 0 | 226.1 $ | 0.0% | Export libre |
Prix FOB blé Russie (EU Agridata) · 2026-06-01
175.8 €/t
Compétitivité Russie vs France (blé)
Russie indicatif
232 $
2026-06-03
FOB France (moy. mensuelle EU Agridata)
232.8 $
2026-05-24
Écart Russie − FR
-0.8 $Russie compétitive
Stats sur 52 semaines · 2025-07-02 → 2026-06-03 · taux USDRUB 90
Blé
24 sem. non nulles
Orge
1 sem. non nulles
Maïs
12 sem. non nulles
Ukraine : cumul réel (Minagro) vs projection WASDE annuelle · Russie : projection WASDE uniquement
Ukraine · cumul réel
Minagro · 2026-06-03Russie · projections WASDE
Données réelles non disponibles publiquementBlé
46 Mt
+3 vs N-1
N-1 : 43 Mt
Maïs
3.3 Mt
Orge
4 Mt
Projection annuelle USDA WASDE · campagne 2025/2026 vs campagne précédente. Pour les données hebdomadaires réelles (SovEcon, IKAR, données navires), des abonnements payants sont nécessaires.
Évolution projections WASDE · blé export (Mt)
| WASDE | Russie | Δ | Ukraine | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06 | 46 | +1.5 | 12.5 | 0 |
| 2026-05 | 44.5 | 0 | 12.5 | 0 |
| 2026-04 | 44.5 | 12.5 |
Δ = révision vs WASDE précédent · 2025/2026
🌾 Australie — concurrent direct sur le blé asiatique
Production ABARES par état, météo des zones de culture et receivals GrainCorp & CBH. L'Australie et la Mer Noire se disputent les marchés d'Asie du Sud-Est et du Moyen-Orient.
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USDA Balances : USDA FAS PSD Online (apps.fas.usda.gov), data in thousands of metric tonnes converted to Mt. Russia = RS, Ukraine = UP, Kazakhstan = KZ. Monthly update (WASDE report).
Rouen Prices : EU Agridata (agridata.ec.europa.eu/api), French port departure prices, soft wheat (BLT) and feed barley. Weekly update.
FOB Russia / France / US : Extracted from the EU Agridata Cereals Dashboard PDF. In $/t.
Russian export tax : Global Trade Alert + USDA GAIN Reports. RUB to EUR conversion: USDRUB rate approx. 90 (fixed approx.) x daily EUR/USD.
Ukraine Exports : UkrAgroConsult / minagro.gov.ua. Data in Mt cumulated since campaign start.
Competitiveness spread : Rouen price (EUR/t) minus Russia FOB ($/t converted to EUR/t via EUR/USD). Threshold: 15 EUR/t.
The Black Sea region groups the three main wheat and corn exporters competing with France: Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, Ukraine, Europe's largest corn exporter, and Kazakhstan. The Russian wheat export tax, published weekly by the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, is a key indicator of Russian wheat competitiveness on world markets. The Rouen FOB price minus the Russia FOB price measures French wheat's competitive advantage: above +15 €/t, France loses markets to Russia.