Grain export monitoring from the Black Sea region: Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan.
Price in USD/t · cash-settled CME
| Contract | Date | Open | High | Low | Close | Volume | OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BDVU26September 2026 | 25/07/2026 | 274.00 | 274.00 | 270.00 | 265.75 | 50 | 600 |
| BDVZ26December 2026 | 25/07/2026 | 270.00 | 270.00 | 270.00 | 270.00 | 0 | — |
| BDVH27March 2027 | 25/07/2026 | 278.00 | 278.00 | 278.00 | 278.00 | 0 | — |
| BDVK27May 2027 | 25/07/2026 | 282.00 | 282.00 | 282.00 | 282.00 | 0 | — |
| BDVN27July 2027 | 25/07/2026 | 286.75 | 286.75 | 286.75 | 286.75 | 0 | — |
| BDVU27September 2027 | 25/07/2026 | 286.75 | 286.75 | 286.75 | 286.75 | 0 | — |
| Country | Production (Mt) | Exports (Mt) | Ending stocks (Mt) | Export/Prod |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | 88.5 -1.8 | 47.5 -0.5 | 12.1 +0.1 | 54% +0 |
| Ukraine | 24 -0.1 | 14.5 +0.5 | 2.5 +0.4 | 60% +0 |
| Kazakhstan | 15 -4.3 | 9 -2.5 | 2 -1 | 60% +0 |
| Zone total | 127.5 | 71 | 16.6 | 56% |
| Country | Production (Mt) | Exports (Mt) | Ending stocks (Mt) | Export/Prod |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | 15.8 +1 | 4 -0.1 | 0.9 +0.2 | 25% -0 |
| Ukraine | 30 -0.9 | 23 0 | 2.1 -0.2 | 77% +0 |
| Kazakhstan | 1.6 +0.5 | 0.2 +0.1 | 0.3 +0.1 | 15% -0 |
| Zone total | 47.4 | 27.2 | 3.2 | 57% |
| Country | Production (Mt) | Exports (Mt) | Ending stocks (Mt) | Export/Prod |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | 18.5 -0.9 | 3.7 -0.7 | 0.5 -0.1 | 20% -0 |
| Ukraine | 5.5 -0.1 | 2.4 +0.9 | 1.6 -0.1 | 44% +0.2 |
| Kazakhstan | 3.2 -0.4 | 1.5 0 | 0.2 -0.1 | 47% +0.1 |
| Zone total | 27.2 | 7.6 | 2.3 | 28% |
Season-to-date totals (Ukrainian customs data)
| Crop | Current season | Prev. year | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat | 12.7 Mt | 15 Mt | -15.4 % |
| Corn | 19.5 Mt | 20.8 Mt | -6.2 % |
| Barley | 1.5 Mt | 2.3 Mt | -35.7 % |
| Total | 33.7 Mt | — | — |
Monthly average prices from EU Agridata : ~3 week lag vs spot prices
RUB tax data · week of 2026-06-03 to 2026-06-09
Zero tax since 21 Apr 2026 · Last positive tax: 329 RUB/t (week of 15 Apr 2026)
| Crop | Tax (RUB/t) | Indicative price ($/t) | Impact (%) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat | 0 | 232 $ | 0.0% | Free export |
| Barley | 0 | 223.2 $ | 0.0% | Free export |
| Corn | 0 | 226.1 $ | 0.0% | Free export |
Russia FOB wheat price (EU Agridata) · 2026-07-20
180.2 €/t
Russia vs France competitiveness (wheat)
Russia indicative
232 $
2026-06-03
France FOB (monthly avg EU Agridata)
263.5 $
2026-07-19
Russia − FR gap
-31.5 $Russia very competitive
Stats over 52 weeks · 2025-09-10 → 2026-07-20 · USDRUB rate 90
Wheat
20 non-zero weeks
Barley
1 non-zero weeks
Corn
6 non-zero weeks
Ukraine: actual cumulative data (Minagro) vs annual WASDE projection · Russia: WASDE projection only
Ukraine · actual cumulative
Minagro · 2026-06-03Russia · WASDE projections
Actual data not publicly availableWheat
47.5 Mt
-0.5 vs prior year
Prior year: 48 Mt
Corn
4 Mt
Barley
3.7 Mt
Annual USDA WASDE projection · 2026/2027 season vs prior season. For real weekly data (SovEcon, IKAR, vessel data), paid subscriptions are required.
🌾 Australia — direct competitor for Asian wheat
ABARES production by state, weather in growing zones and GrainCorp & CBH receivals. Australia and the Black Sea compete for South-East Asian and Middle-Eastern markets.
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Bulk shipping cost, a direct competitiveness factor for wheat, corn and rapeseed exports
The Supramax index (BSI) remains at a high level, at the 98th percentile of the past three years, but has held steady this week (-1.6%). Ocean freight continues to represent a significant share of the delivered cost of grain. Nearby origins keep a relative edge over distant ones as long as this level persists.
Source: Barchart (Baltic Exchange) · Updated daily on business days
USDA Balances : USDA FAS PSD Online (apps.fas.usda.gov), data in thousands of metric tonnes converted to Mt. Russia = RS, Ukraine = UP, Kazakhstan = KZ. Monthly update (WASDE report).
Rouen Prices : EU Agridata (agridata.ec.europa.eu/api), French port departure prices, soft wheat (BLT) and feed barley. Weekly update.
FOB Russia / France / US : Extracted from the EU Agridata Cereals Dashboard PDF. In $/t.
Russian export tax : Global Trade Alert + USDA GAIN Reports. RUB to EUR conversion: USDRUB rate approx. 90 (fixed approx.) x daily EUR/USD.
Ukraine Exports : UkrAgroConsult / minagro.gov.ua. Data in Mt cumulated since campaign start.
Competitiveness spread : Rouen price (EUR/t) minus Russia FOB ($/t converted to EUR/t via EUR/USD). Threshold: 15 EUR/t.
The Black Sea region groups the three main wheat and corn exporters competing with France: Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, Ukraine, Europe's largest corn exporter, and Kazakhstan. The Russian wheat export tax, published weekly by the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, is a key indicator of Russian wheat competitiveness on world markets. The Rouen FOB price minus the Russia FOB price measures French wheat's competitive advantage: above +15 €/t, France loses markets to Russia.