Euronext EBM Wheat: Funds Stay Net Long, Cut to 50,324 Lots
A review of fund positioning on Euronext milling wheat (EBM). Contract moves, market trends and geopolitical impacts: take stock of the wheat price.
Funds remain net long on Euronext wheat (EBM). After several weeks, money managers are still in positive territory with a net long of 50,324 lots, against 93,833 lots last week. The fall reflects a net reduction of 25,040 long contracts and the purchase of 18,468 short contracts.
Over the last 14 weeks, funds have therefore been net long 13 times out of 14, confirming a clear tendency to accumulate longs in a mildly rising market.
Commercials are net short at -30,659 lots, against -79,658 lots last week.
For traders it is a bit like trying to keep your umbrella open in a hurricane: you try to stay with the wind!
Euronext wheat corrected this week after testing resistance at €218/t, coming back to the bottom of the €205-218/t channel at €207.5/t (and even €203/t yesterday on September 2026, the lowest since 17 February).
US-Iran talks over the Strait of Hormuz and Sino-American exchanges remain a source of volatility for crude and commodities. On the fundamental side, favourable rain across the Corn Belt, Western Europe, the Black Sea and Australia reassured operators and triggered fund selling. Disappointing first US crop ratings (corn 67%, soybeans 66%, spring wheat 47%) are being ignored for now in the face of the wet weather ahead.
Finally, ABARES cut its estimate of Australian 2026-27 wheat production to 26.7 Mt (-26% vs 2025), well below the USDA (around 30 Mt), which reinforces the need for European wheat to stay attractive on export.
Geopolitics weighed heavily: tensions in the Middle East with missile fire in the Persian Gulf, a rebound in WTI crude above $95 and euro-dollar below 1.1620.