Euronext Wheat COT: Funds Cut Net Long 32% (20 March)
Funds cut their net long sharply this week, down 32%.
Funds cut their net long sharply this week, down 32%.
The net long fell from 93,737 lots to 63,190 lots as at 20 March 2026. The move came both from profit-taking on longs (-7,167 lots) and from fresh selling (+23,380 lots short).
Commercials likewise trimmed their net short exposure, which moved from -95,952 lots to -65,699 lots.
On Euronext, agricultural commodity prices are suffering from the correction in crude and from the stronger euro against the dollar. The May contract is now trading around €202/t. Spreads remain positive (contango) on deferred months, supported by ample stocks and near-term uncertainty.
Uncertainty between Trump and Iran escalated further this week. Trump insists talks with Iran are progressing while Tehran denies any exchange between the two and rejects even the idea of a ceasefire. That uncertainty drove enormous volatility early in the week and, for now, market participants are taking a fairly optimistic view of the story.
My own read is that Trump has grasped how serious the situation is and is trying to defuse it. Iran, for its part, has gained a good deal of confidence and is revealing more advanced weapons than expected, along with an arsenal more powerful than Trump and Netanyahu had anticipated. Iran is therefore trying to extract the maximum from this conflict, Trump-style: they have put big demands to the United States in order to negotiate a more favourable deal. Trump is under time pressure, as the four weeks he had set himself at the start of the conflict are running out and he is very keen to avoid a ground invasion that would cost him dearly financially and, in all likelihood, his presidency.
Currency markets have stayed quiet after Monday's sharp move on the back of Trump's bluff. Euro-dollar is trading above 1.15 this week and has upside potential if the conflict cools.
Crude has been hit harder still by the announcements from Trump and Iran. WTI has dropped 10% from last week's close and is trading below $90 a barrel. After the fall, prices found support around $87/bbl.